Forecasting Uganda’s Industrial Production Index Using Grey Systems Forecasting

  • PRINCE MUWANGUZI Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, P.R China
Keywords: Forecasting, Grey System forecasting, Even GM (1, 1) model, Industrial Production, Manufacturing, Uganda

Abstract

Economic growth is always the ideal for any country and depends on industrialization as one of the major pillars of transformation. Although slow, Industrial Production in Uganda is growing and this paper forecasts the country’s Industrial Production over five years from the year 2016 to 2020. Results and show that farther increase in Total Production can be expected and as most production categories will continue to grow, some will see very little growth and others decline. The paper suggests tighter restrictions on the importation of goods that are already being manufactured domestically especially for the case of those in the Textile, Clothing and Footwear category which is forecasted to decline.

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References

Ministry of Tourism, Trade & Industry (2008); National Industrial Policy 2008.

Uganda Bureau of Statistics (2016); 2016 Statistical Abstract.

Uganda Bureau of Statistics (2003); 2003 Statistical Abstract.

Uganda Bureau of Statistics (2013); 2013 Statistical Abstract.

East African Community (2012); East African Community Industrialization Strategy 2012 – 2032.

World Bank (2017); World Bank Open Data, http://data.worldbank.org/country/uganda.

Deng Julong. Introduction to Grey System Theory Department of Automation, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, People’s Republic of China. 2008

Sifeng Liu, Liangyan Tao, Naiming Xie, Yingjie Yang. On the New Model System and Framework of Grey System Theory. 2016

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Wenliang Cao, Dingxiu He, Xuanzi Hu; IT Talent Demand Forecast and Research in Dongguan Based on Grey System Theory. Department of Computer Engineering DongGuan Polytechnic, Basic Department DongGuan Polytechnic Dongguan, Guangdong, China. 2011

Published
2017-11-05
How to Cite
MUWANGUZI, P. (2017). Forecasting Uganda’s Industrial Production Index Using Grey Systems Forecasting. Journal of Research in Business, Economics and Management, 9(4), 1716-1724. Retrieved from http://scitecresearch.com/journals/index.php/jrbem/article/view/1275
Section
Articles