Inference of the Stochastic SIR Household Epidemic Model with Misspecification and Misclassification.
Abstract
Sometimes the final size epidemic data may be misclassified and the infectious period
distribution also misspecified. How are the estimates affected when these two scenarios occur and hence the adequacy of the model fittness to the final size data, is the focus of this study. This is investigated using simulations in the face of global infection, by first simulating the final size epidemic data with exp(4.1) infectious period distribution and estimated with Γ(2,4.1/2) infectious period distribution, vice versa.
The estimates are further explored for a range of local and global infection rates and
corresponding proportion infected, misclassification probabilities in the permissible region.
The three and four dimensional models are found to be significantly better than the two
dimensional model given these scenarios.
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