Stochastic SIR Household Epidemic Model with Misspecification

  • Abdulkarim Mallam Umar Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Nigeria
Keywords: Final size epidemic, infectious period distribution, maximum likelihood estimates, misclassification probabilities

Abstract

The stochastic SIR household epidemic model is well discussed in [3], [4], [5] and also in [1]
by assuming that the infection period distribution is known. Sometimes this may wrongly
be assumed in the model estimation and hence the adequacy of the model fittness to the
final size data is affected. we examined this problem using simulations with large population size and theoretical parameters in which the final size data is first simulated with exp(4.1) infectious period distribution and estimated with Gamma(2,4.1/2) infectious period distribution and vice versa. The estimates of the two dimensional models are further explored for a range of local and global infection rates with corresponding proportion infected and found to be biased and imprecise.

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Published
2021-08-09
How to Cite
Umar, A. (2021). Stochastic SIR Household Epidemic Model with Misspecification. Journal of Progressive Research in Mathematics, 18(3), 31-46. Retrieved from http://scitecresearch.com/journals/index.php/jprm/article/view/2074
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